What's changed since our last update, why big funds are quietly unstaking, and where HYPE stands after pulling back from its all-time high.

Quick Snapshot

• Current price: Around $58 (down from the June all-time high)
• All-time high: $76.65–$76.70 (June 16, 2026)
• All-time low: $3.81 (November 2024)
• Market cap: Roughly $13–14.7 billion (ranked #9–11 by market cap)
• Circulating supply: About 222–253 million HYPE, roughly 22–27% of the 1 billion max supply
• 24h trading volume: Roughly $165–470 million depending on the day
• Recent trend: Down about 24% from the June all-time high, with a notable 8% drop in the past few days tied to large-fund unstaking

What's Changed Since Our Last Update

HYPE actually made a real run at its all-time high earlier in July — trading around $70–72 in early July, forming what chart watchers called a cup-and-handle pattern, sitting just below the $76.70 resistance level. That attempt has since faded, and price has pulled back down into the high $50s.

The most important new development is a wave of unstaking by large trading firms. On July 22, HYPE dropped about 8% after Multicoin Capital, Galaxy Digital, and Selini Capital collectively queued close to $150 million worth of HYPE for withdrawal. Multicoin alone had roughly 83% of its staked position — about $116 million — lined up to unstake, and a Multicoin-linked wallet has already moved a chunk of tokens toward Coinbase, a common precursor to selling. This kind of move naturally raises concern: when large, sophisticated holders start pulling tokens out of staking, it's often read as a signal they expect lower prices ahead, or simply want liquidity to redeploy elsewhere.

At the same time, platform usage is telling a much healthier story. Hyperliquid's open interest (the total value of active derivative positions on the platform) hit roughly $11.5–12 billion on July 23 — its highest level since October 2025 — which is a genuine sign of rising trading activity, not fading interest. There's also a structural tailwind: the shutdown of BitMEX, a legacy centralized derivatives exchange, is expected to push some traders and volume toward on-chain alternatives like Hyperliquid.

The Buyback Math Behind the Unlocks

Monthly token unlocks remain a recurring event for HYPE, and they keep drawing attention every time one approaches. The July 6 unlock released 9.92 million HYPE (worth roughly $645–690 million at the time) to core contributors, part of a vesting schedule that repeats monthly through 2026 and into 2027. The next unlock is scheduled for August 6, 2026.

Here's the context that matters: Hyperliquid's Assistance Fund — the mechanism that routes the vast majority of trading fees (previously cited around 99%, now closer to 97%) into open-market HYPE buybacks — reportedly holds about 4.6 times the size of a single monthly unlock tranche. The fund has already spent over $1 billion buying back and effectively removing more than 40 million HYPE tokens from circulation since it started. That's a meaningful structural buyer standing opposite the unlock-driven sell pressure every month, and it's a big part of why past unlocks (including June's) haven't triggered the selloffs some traders feared.

Still, with only about 22–27% of HYPE's 1 billion total supply in circulation, the unlock schedule running through 2027 remains a real, recurring test — it's not going away, and each month's outcome depends on whether buyback demand and organic trading volume keep pace with new supply hitting the market.

Institutional Picture: Still a Bright Spot

Despite the recent pullback and fund unstaking, the institutional side of HYPE's story has stayed strong through July:

• US spot HYPE ETFs have posted eight straight weeks of inflows since launching in May 2026 — notably, this streak continued even through a month when Bitcoin ETFs saw record outflows.
• The Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF, one of the first US spot HYPE products, includes in-house staking on its holdings, and Bitwise itself deposited and staked roughly $114 million worth of HYPE directly into the protocol.
• Coinbase named Hyperliquid its official USDC treasury deployer, routing its own stablecoin reserves through the network — a strong vote of confidence in Hyperliquid as production-grade financial infrastructure, not just a trading venue.
• Grayscale's HYPG ETF launched at a competitive 0.29% fee and, combined with other products, has helped US HYPE ETFs absorb more than 1% of the token's entire market cap.
• Nasdaq-listed Hyperliquid Strategies holds 20 million HYPE and reported a $152.5 million profit in Q1 2026 alone as the token rallied.

Levels to Watch

• Resistance: The all-time high zone around $76.70 remains the key level bulls want to reclaim. A confirmed close above it would open the path toward the $88 area that some analysts have flagged as the next target on a breakout.
• Support: Recent pullback lows near $52 acted as a floor in late June; the current move down into the high $50s is testing whether that zone holds again. A break below $52 would be a more serious technical warning sign.
• What to watch next: The August 6 unlock, and whether the recent fund unstaking (Multicoin, Galaxy, Selini) turns into actual selling on exchanges or just repositioning.

The Case For HYPE

• Real, growing usage — open interest at its highest since October 2025 signals genuine trading demand, not just token speculation
• A buyback mechanism with real firepower behind it (a fund holding several times the size of any single monthly unlock)
• Consistent institutional ETF inflows that have held up even while Bitcoin funds bled money
• Coinbase's treasury deployment decision and Bitwise's staked deposit both signal serious institutional trust in the platform
• A potential tailwind from BitMEX's shutdown redirecting traders toward on-chain venues

The Case Against HYPE

• Large funds actively unstaking nearly $150 million is a real, current signal — not a hypothetical risk — and it's already dented price once this month
• Monthly unlocks continue through 2027 with the bulk of supply still locked, meaning this pressure isn't a one-time event
• Regulatory scrutiny hasn't gone away — Singapore's MAS, UK warnings, and reports of a possible CFTC review of Hyperliquid's derivatives products remain open questions
• The recent cup-and-handle breakout attempt toward the all-time high has already failed once this cycle, and price is now back below levels it held just weeks ago

Simple Takeaway

HYPE's story right now has two very different threads running side by side. The platform itself is doing better than ever — record open interest, strong institutional adoption, and a buyback engine with real ammunition behind it. But a handful of large funds pulling nearly $150 million out of staking is a fresh, concrete reason for caution, and it's already shown up in the price. The upcoming August 6 unlock will be another real-time test of whether the Assistance Fund's buying power can keep absorbing new supply the way it has in prior months.

For now, the $52–$58 zone looks like the near-term battleground, with $76.70 remaining the level that needs to break for a fresh all-time high. Given the mix of genuinely strong fundamentals and a real, current unstaking event, this looks less like a clear buy-or-sell signal and more like a "watch closely before adding exposure" moment.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile — always do your own research before investing.